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Israel, Hamas trade deadly fire as confrontation escalates

Israel, Hamas trade deadly fire as confrontation escalates

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Israeli military has dealt a tough blow to Gaza militants and warns that fighting with Hamas will continue for some time

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip — A confrontation between Israel and Hamas sparked by weeks of tensions in contested Jerusalem escalated Tuesday as Israel unleashed new airstrikes on Gaza while militants barraged Israel with hundreds of rockets. The exchange killed a number of militants and civilians in Gaza and at least three people in Israel.

The barrage of rockets from the Gaza Strip and airstrikes into the territory continued almost nonstop throughout the day, in what appeared to be some of the most intense fighting between Israel and Hamas since their 2014 war. The fire was so relentless that Israel’s Iron Dome rocket-defense system seemed to be overwhelmed. Columns of smoke rose from many places in Gaza.

By late Tuesday, the violence extended to Tel Aviv, which came under fire from a barrage of rockets launched from the Gaza Strip. A 50-year-old woman was killed. The outgoing volleys set off air raid sirens across the city, and the main international airport closed temporarily.

Hamas said it launched a total of 130 rockets, its most intense strike so far, in response to Israel’s destruction of a high-rise building in Gaza earlier in the evening. The sound of the outgoing rockets could be heard in Gaza. As the rockets rose into the skies, mosques across Gaza blared with chants of “God is great,” “victory to Islam” and “resistance.”

One rocket struck a bus in the central city of Holon, just south of Tel Aviv. Medics said three people, including a 5-year-old girl, were wounded and the bus went up in flames.

Since sundown Monday, 28 Palestinians — including 10 children and a woman— were killed in Gaza, most by airstrikes, health officials there said. The Israeli military said at least 16 of the dead were militants.

Two women were killed by rockets fired from Gaza that hit their homes in the southern city of Ashkelon — the first Israeli deaths in the current violence. At least 10 other Israelis have been wounded since Monday evening.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the fighting would continue for some time. In a nationally televised speech late Tuesday, he said Hamas and Islamic Jihad “have paid, and will pay, a heavy price.”

“This campaign will take time, with determination, unity and strength,” he said.

Even before the two Israeli deaths, the Israeli military said it was sending troop reinforcements to the Gaza border, and the defense minister ordered the mobilization of 5,000 reserve soldiers.

Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, a military spokesman, told reporters that the objective was to send a “clear message” to Hamas.

Diplomats sought to intervene. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres demanded a halt to the “spiraling» violence, a U.N. spokesman said. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to the Israeli foreign minister to condemn the Hamas attacks and “reiterate the important message of de-escalation,” the State Department said.

The barrage of rockets and airstrikes was preceded by hours of clashes Monday between Palestinians and Israeli security forces, including dramatic confrontations at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, a sacred site to both Jews and Muslims. The current violence, like previous rounds, including the last intifada, or uprising, has been fueled by conflicting claims over Jerusalem, which is at the emotional core of the long conflict.

In a sign of widening unrest, hundreds of residents of Arab communities across Israel staged overnight demonstrations denouncing the recent actions of Israeli security forces against Palestinians. It was one of the largest protests by Palestinian citizens in Israel in recent years.

In the central Israeli town of Lod, police fired tear gas and stun grenades after mourners threw rocks at officers during the funeral of an Arab man allegedly shot to death by a Jewish resident the night before. Thousands took part in the funeral, and police said the crowd set fire to a patrol car, a bus and a motorcycle. Two police officers were injured.

Israel and Hamas have fought three wars and numerous skirmishes since the militant group seized control of Gaza in 2007. Recent rounds of fighting have usually ended after a few days, often helped by mediation by Qatar, Egypt and others.

Israel carried out dozens of airstrikes, including two that targeted high-rise apartment buildings where militants were believed to be hiding.

One strike demolished a 12-story building in Gaza City that housed the offices of top Hamas officials. Israeli drones fired a series of warning shots at the roof to give people time to leave the building before it was destroyed. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

At midday, an airstrike hit a building in central Gaza City, sending terrified residents running into the street, including women and barefoot children. The Islamic Jihad militant group confirmed that the strike killed three of its commanders.

Another strike hit a high-rise as people were conducting dawn prayers, killing a woman, her 19-year-old disabled son and another man, residents said. Health officials confirmed the deaths.

The Gaza Health Ministry said 28 people, including 10 children and the woman, have been killed and 152 wounded. Ashraf al-Kidra, a spokesman for the ministry, said Israel’s “relentless assault” was overwhelming the health care system, which has been struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak.

The escalation comes at a time of political limbo in Israel.

Netanyahu has been caretaker prime minister since an inconclusive parliamentary election in March. He failed to form a coalition government with his hard-line and ultra-Orthodox allies, and the task was handed to his political rivals last week.

One of those rivals is Israel’s defense minister, who is overseeing the Gaza campaign. It was not clear whether the political atmosphere was spilling over into military decision-making, though the rival camps have unanimously expressed support for striking Hamas hard.

The support of an Arab-backed party with Islamist roots is key for the anti-Netanyahu bloc. But the current tensions might deter the party’s leader, Mansour Abbas, from joining a coalition for now. The sides have three more weeks to reach a deal.

The current violence in Jerusalem coincided with the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan in mid-April.

Critics say heavy-handed police measures helped stoke nightly unrest, including a decision to temporarily seal off a popular gathering spot where Palestinian residents would meet after evening prayers. Another flashpoint was the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah, where dozens of Palestinians are under threat of eviction by Jewish settlers.

Over the weekend, confrontations erupted at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which is the third holiest site of Islam and the holiest site in Judaism.

Over several days, Israel police fired tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets at Palestinians in the compound who hurled stones and chairs. At times, police fired stun grenades into the carpeted mosque.

On Monday evening, Hamas began firing rockets from Gaza. From there on, the escalation was rapid.

Gaza militants fired more than 500 rockets at Israel, with about one-third falling short and landing in Gaza, Conricus said.

At midday, a barrage of some 10 rockets whizzed above the southern city of Ashdod, filling the skies with streaks of white smoke.

A rocket that hit an apartment building in Ashkelon injured six people, according to Israeli paramedic service Magen David Adom. A building in Ashdod was also hit, lightly wounding four, Israeli police said.

The military hit 130 targets in Gaza, including two tunnels militants were digging under the border with Israel, Conricus said. He did not address Gaza Health Ministry reports about the dead children.

Seven of the deaths in Gaza were members of a single family, including three children, who died in an explosion in the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanoun. It was not clear if the blast was caused by an Israeli airstrike or errant rocket.

Federman reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press writers Karin Laub in the West Bank, Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem and Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed.

Fuente de la Información: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-airstrikes-hit-hamas-commanders-home-gaza-tunnels-77616065

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Sangriento atentado frente a una escuela primaria en Kabul

Sangriento atentado frente a una escuela primaria en Kabul

Una explosión ante una escuela de niñas en la capital afgana, Kabul, causó al menos 33 muertos y decenas de heridos, incluidos estudiantes, informó el ministerio de Interior afgano este sábado (08.05.2021).

La Unión Europea (UE) condenó enérgicamente el «horrendo» atentado con bomba que constituye una violación «despreciable» del derecho internacional.

La explosión que según la agencia dpa dejó un saldo provisional de 33 muertos y unos 80 heridos, ocurrió en el distrito de Dasht-e-Barchi, en el oeste de Kabul, cuando los residentes estaban en la calle haciendo compras antes de la fiesta del Aíd al Fitr, la próxima semana, que marca el final del mes sagrado del Ramadán.

El barrio está poblado principalmente por chiitas hazaras y en el pasado ha sido atacado por militantes islámicos sunitas.

El portavoz del ministerio de Salud, Dastagir Nazari, dijo que varias ambulancias fueron despachadas al lugar para evacuar a los heridos. «La gente en la zona está molesta y ha golpeado a varios trabajadores de ambulancias», indicó.

Sayed M. Modarresi
@SayedModarresi
[Thread] The school’s name: Sayyed-ul-Shohada. It means ‘Prince of Martyrs’, a title given to Imam Hussein. Who knew the 40 innocent souls that perished today, would follow in his footsteps?

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Escenas desgarradoras

«Vi cuerpos ensangrentados entre una nube de humo y polvo, cuando heridos gritaban y sufrían», declaró a la AFP Reza, quien escapó a la explosión.

«Vi a una mujer buscar entre los cuerpos mientras llamaba a su hija», agregó. «En ese momento, encontró una bolsa de su hija ensangrentada y se desmayó».

Reza agregó que la mayoría de las víctimas eran adolescentes que acababan de salir de la escuela.

Afghanistan Bombenanschläge auf Schule in Kabul

La gente busca a sus familiares después de que al menos 30 personas, en su mayoría alumnas, hayan muerto en tres explosiones consecutivas dirigidas a una escuela en Kabul, la capital de Afganistán.

UE: «despreciable acto de terrorismo»

La misión europea en Afganistán condenó el atentado.  «El horrendo ataque… es un despreciable acto de terrorismo», señaló la misión por Twitter.

The horrendous attack in Dasht-i Barchi area in Kabul, is an despicable act of terrorism. Targeting primarily students in a girls’ school, makes this an attack on the future of Afghanistan. On young people determined to improve their country. Our thoughts go to all affected.

«Tener como objetivo estudiantes de primaria en una escuela de mujeres, hace de este ataque una agresión contra el futuro de Afganistán. Contra gente joven determinada a mejorar el país».

La misión de asistencia de Naciones Unidas en Afganistán (Unama) expresó su «profundo rechazo» a la explosión.

«EE.UU. condena este bárbaro ataque cerca de una escuela femenina en Kabul, Afganistán. Ofrecemos nuestras condolencias a las víctimas, muchas de ellas menores, y sus familias. Exigimos el fin inmediato de la violencia y de los ataques sin sentido contra civiles inocentes», dijo en un comunicado el portavoz del Departamento de Estado, Ned Price.

«Unicef condena con fuerza el horrible ataque ocurrido hoy cerca de la escuela secundaria Sayed Ul-Shuhada», dijo en un comunicado su directora ejecutiva, Henrietta Fore. «El ataque se ha cobrado las vidas de docenas de escolares, la mayoría niñas, y ha herido de gravedad a muchos más», agregó por parte el organismo de Naciones Unidas.

Dasht-e-Barchi ha sido frecuente objetivo de ataques de militantes islamistas suníes.

Aunque el ataque no fue reivindicado, el presidente afgano Ashraf Ghani acusó a los talibanes y al Estado islámico.

Fuente de la Información: https://www.dw.com/es/sangriento-atentado-frente-a-una-escuela-primaria-en-kabul/a-57473451

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Al-Aqsa mosque: Dozens hurt in Jerusalem clashes

Al-Aqsa mosque: Dozens hurt in Jerusalem clashes

At least 163 Palestinians and six Israeli police officers have been hurt in clashes in Jerusalem, Palestinian medics and Israeli police say.

Most were injured at the Al-Aqsa mosque, where Israeli police fired rubber bullets and stun grenades as Palestinians threw stones and bottles.

Tensions have been rising over the potential eviction of Palestinians from land claimed by Jewish settlers.

The Red Crescent has opened a field hospital to treat the wounded.

The Al-Aqsa mosque complex in Jerusalem’s Old City is one of Islam’s most revered locations, but its location is also the holiest site in Judaism, known as the Temple Mount.

The site is a frequent flashpoint for violence, which unfolded again on Friday night after thousands had gathered there to observe the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Israeli police said they had used force to «restore order» due to the «rioting of thousands of worshippers» after evening prayers.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, meanwhile, said he «held [Israel] responsible for the dangerous developments and sinful attacks».

An Aqsa official called for calm over the mosque’s loudspeakers. «Police must immediately stop firing stun grenades at worshippers, and the youth must calm down and be quiet!», Reuters news agency quoted them as saying.

The Palestinian Red Crescent emergency service said 88 of the injured Palestinians were taken to hospital after they were hit with rubber-coated metal bullets. Police said some of the six officers injured needed medical treatment.

Clashes near Al Aqsa Mosque, 7 May

Israeli police walk near the Dome of the Rock during clashes with Palestinians, 7 May

The international community also appealed for de-escalation on Friday, as anger mounted over the threatened eviction of Palestinian families in East Jerusalem’s Shaikh Jarrah district.

A US State Department spokeswoman said Washington was «deeply concerned about the heightened tensions». The European Union condemned the violence and said «perpetrators on all sides must be held accountable».

The UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland, urged all parties to «respect the status quo of holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City in the interest of peace & stability.»
Deeply concerned by the heightened tensions & violence in & around #Jerusalem. I call on all to act responsibly & maintain calm. All must respect the status quo of holy sites in Jerusalem’s Old City in the interest of peace & stability. Political & religious leaders must act now.
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.View original tweet on Twitter
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The UN has said Israel should call off any evictions and employ «maximum restraint in the use of force» against protesters.

The League of Arab States, or Arab League, called on the international community to intervene to prevent any evictions.

Israel’s Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the long-running legal case on Monday.

Tension has been high throughout the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

Before the latest violence in the Al-Aqsa compound, there were Palestinian protests over Israeli barricades erected outside Jerusalem’s Old City. There has been nightly unrest over possible Palestinian evictions in nearby Sheikh Jarrah.

Elsewhere in the occupied West Bank, two Palestinians were shot dead after firing at an Israeli military base on Friday. Earlier in the week, a Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli religious student and a Palestinian teenager was killed in clashes with Israeli forces searching for him.

The international calls for calm and restraint show recognition of the dangers if this escalation continues.

And there is deep concern about what could happen on Monday.

Israel’s Supreme Court is due to hold a hearing on the Sheikh Jarrah case as Israelis mark Jerusalem Day. The annual celebration of the capture of the east of the city during the 1967 Middle East War includes a flag march in the Old City that typically leads to clashes with local Palestinians.

Israel has occupied East Jerusalem since the 1967 Middle East war and considers the entire city its capital, though this is not recognised by the vast majority of the international community.

Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as the future capital of a hoped-for independent state.

Fuente de la Información: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57034237

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Viet Nam: Mother and son unjustly convicted in “travesty of justice”

Viet Nam: Mother and son unjustly convicted in “travesty of justice”

Responding to the conviction of prominent land rights activists Trinh Ba Tu and Can Thi Theu, Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for Research, Emerlynne Gil, said:

“This conviction is a travesty of justice. Can Thi Theu and her son, Trinh Ba Tu, are brave human rights defenders who should be protected by the Vietnamese government, not harassed and locked away.

“Can Thi Theu and Trinh Ba Tu should never have been arrested in the first place, let alone convicted of bogus charges. They are clearly being punished in retaliation for their peaceful activism to expose injustices and human rights violations. Sadly, in Viet Nam, the peaceful defence of human rights is enough to face a lengthy prison term.

The authorities in Viet Nam should overturn this unjust conviction without delay and immediately and unconditionally release Can Thi Theu and Trinh Ba Tu. They were convicted solely for peacefully exercising their human rights. The Vietnamese authorities must release all those unjustly imprisoned in Vietnamese jails.”

Background

Trinh Ba Tu and Can Thi Theu were both sentenced to eight years’ imprisonment followed by three years’ probation after being convicted for “making, storing, or spreading information, materials or items for the purpose of opposing the State of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam” by the People’s Court of Hoa Binh province today.

Can Thi Theu is a well-known land rights activist and human rights defender in Viet Nam. She became an activist after her family’s land was confiscated by the authorities in 2010. She began advocating against forced evictions and became a leading figure of the land rights movement.

In 2014, Can Thi Theu and her husband, Trinh Ba Khiem, were arrested while filming a forced eviction and later were convicted by the People’s Court of Ha Dong district. Can Thi Theu was sentenced to 15 months’ imprisonment and her husband was given an 18-month sentence. Both were charged under Article 257 of the 1999 Criminal Code for “resisting persons in the performance of their official duties”.

In June 2016, Can Thi Theu was arrested again for leading a peaceful protest at the Central Citizen Committee office to demand justice for people whose land were confiscated. She was tried in September the same year by the People’s Court of Dong Da district and convicted and sentenced to one year and eight months in prison for “resisting persons in the performance of their official duties” under Article 257 of the 1999 Criminal Code.

After the imprisonment of their parents, Trinh Ba Tu and Trinh Ba Phuong also became activists and human rights defenders. They became leading figures of the land rights movement while their parents were in prison. Upon her release from prison, Can Thi Theu continued her land rights activism together with her sons.

In January 2020, police raided the village of Dong Tam in Ha Noi in a clash in which an 84-year-old village leader and three police officers were killed. Authorities also arrested dozens of villagers in relation to the high-profile land dispute between the government and the local community. Can Thi Theu and her two sons, Trinh Ba Tu and Trinh Ba Phuong, played prominent roles in informing the public about the incident through their social media platforms.

On 24 June 2020, police arrested Can Thi Theu, Trinh Ba Phuong and Trinh Ba Tu. The three were charged for “making, storing, or spreading information, materials or items for the purpose of opposing the State of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam” under Article 117 of the Criminal Code. Trinh Ba Phuong remains in pre-trial detention.

Fuente de la Información: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/05/viet-nam-mother-son-unjustly-convicted/

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Child Sex Abuse In Indonesia’s Schools

Child Sex Abuse In Indonesia’s Schools

This file photo shows children attending prayers at a Catholic Church in Medan, North Sumatra, on 24 December, 2019. (AFP Photo)

A child molestation incident in Medan, North Sumatra has highlighted the need for schools and local authorities in Indonesia to better protect their students, particularly when the perpetrators are religious leaders, experts have said.

At a school in Medan, six female students came forward last month to allege that the institution’s male principal, who is also a Protestant priest, had sexually assaulted them. Mira*, the mother of one of the alleged victims, said that her 13-year-old daughter had been taken to a local motel on at least four occasions from the age of 11, where she was sexually assaulted.

“My daughter said that the principal told other staff that he was taking her to karate practice outside the school grounds,” Mira said. “When they got to the hotel, he took off her clothes, blindfolded her and forced her to give him oral sex. When she tried to resist, he pulled her head down by her hair to force her to continue.”

Mira filed a police report against the alleged perpetrator earlier this month.

Five additional female students also said they were locked in the principal’s office for “special classes” including English lessons and ballet but they were forced to sit on the man’s lap while he sexually assaulted them. It is not clear how many cases of child sex abuse in schools happen every year in Indonesia, although the National Commission on Violence Against Women recorded more than 38,000 cases of violence against women and children in 2020, the highest ever.

In recent years the Southeast Asian nation has been rocked by a number of high-profile cases of child sex abuse.

In 2020, the head of an Islamic boarding school in Aceh Province was sentenced to 15 years in prison for assaulting 15 male students that year and a Catholic priest, “Brother Angelo”, who was arrested on suspicion of sexually assaulting minors at a children’s home in Jakarta in 2021 is currently on trial.

But many such cases are deliberately kept out of the public eye.

“When the sexual violence perpetrated by religious leaders, it is a very difficult process, because people believe that the perpetrator is unlikely to commit violence, as these leaders are considered holy figures, authoritative and nurturing. Many victims end up being judged by their local community and accused of seducing the perpetrators,” said Ermelina Singereta, a lawyer at the Dike Nomia Law Firm in Jakarta, which is representing the victims in the “Brother Angelo” case.

In Medan, Mira says that the school initially tried to resolve the case internally, with the principal signing a written agreement, in which he apologised to two of the victims and promised not to reoffend, something which Singereta noted is very common.

“Many cases are resolved through religious organisations, due to a lack of education or information in the community,” she said. “Sometimes religious organisations solve the problem of violence against women or children with internal mechanisms even when they have a responsibility to go through state legal mechanisms.”

Indonesia’s child protection laws were created in 2002 and updated in 2014.

Punishments for those convicted of the sexual abuse of a minor can range from between five and 15 years in prison, although a new amendment was proposed by the Indonesian Parliament in 2016 following the gang rape and murder of a 14-year-old teenager in Bengkulu on Sumatra’s west coast.

One of the proposed changes of the 2016 bill allows for the chemical castration of convicted paedophiles by injection. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, signed the use of chemical castration into force in January 2021, although the punishment has yet to be carried out. Fear and shame

Sister Eustochia Monika Nata, a Catholic nun who works with victims of child sex abuse as part of the Volunteer Team for Humanity (TRUK-F) on Flores in Indonesia’s east, said that in the town of Maumere alone, which has a population of about 90,000 people, she sees about 30 new cases of sexual assault of children and minors every year. “Those are the cases that are reported to us at TRUK-F, and so of course there are likely many more that are not reported,” she added.

“Some of the victims become pregnant due to the abuse, and they don’t want to report what has happened to them because they feel ashamed or because they think that they will not be supported by the investigating authorities.”

Ranto Sibarani, a human rights lawyer based in Medan who is representing the six alleged victims at the Protestant school, said that the legal process can be long and arduous for victims of sexual assault and more needed to be done to support the victims and encourage them to take action.

“In Indonesia, women and children are often in the weakest position to speak up for their rights, so it is important that we empower them to do so,” he said. “In many parts of the country, they are considered second-class citizens because of the patriarchal dominance in Indonesian society.” He also says there is a need for tougher safeguards to be put in place and has urged the government and the Education Ministry to take steps to monitor educational and religious staff more closely.

“I would ask the government to re-evaluate how both teachers and religious leaders are recruited and how they can get jobs teaching in schools without sufficient background checks and psychological evaluations that would help to keep students safe,” the lawyer said. “Child sex abuse cases are worse than terrorism as we have no idea how many victims have actually been affected.”

On 16 April, angry parents staged a protest outside the school in Medan calling for a full investigation and asking staff to cooperate with the local authorities. They also held signs calling for the principal, who has yet to be arrested, to be sacked.

Mira says she is proud of her daughter for speaking out and that her family felt compelled to report the abuse to the authorities out of fear that other victims would be affected in the future.

“The number of victims who have come forward are probably the tip of the iceberg, so he [the principal] has to be stopped otherwise he will do it again,” she said. “He was her teacher but for two years he treated my daughter like an animal.”

“We hope that schools will be the safest of places for parents to educate their children,” added Sibarani. “But this case shows how even schools which purport to promote strong religious values can turn into houses of horror.” – Al Jazeera

*Mira is a pseudonym to protect her daughter’s identity.

Fuente de la Información: https://theaseanpost.com/article/child-sex-abuse-indonesias-schools

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Al menos 30 muertos tras una explosión cerca de una escuela para niñas en Afganistán

Al menos 30 personas murieron y decenas resultaron heridas- gran parte ellos, menores de edad- tras una explosión cerca de una escuela secundaria para niñas en Kabul, la capital de Afganistán.

La explosión ocurrió cuando un grupo de estudiantes salía del instituto este sábado, informaron autoridades del país asiático.

Según los corresponsales de la BBC, varias imágenes difundidas en las redes sociales muestran mochilas escolares abandonadas en las calles de la capital afgana.

La mayoría de las personas que resultaron heridas eran niñas, de acuerdo con una portavoz del Ministerio de Educación.

Fuente: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-57015307

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La bomba de relojería demográfica que amenaza a China: menos población y más envejecida

Cada año nacen menos niños en el país más poblado del mundo y el que más rápidamente envejece

La pregunta del libro de texto cayó como un rayo durante la clase en un centro de enseñanza de idiomas en Pekín: “Sin hijos, la vida no tiene tanto sentido. ¿Estás de acuerdo?”. Las seis alumnas ―entre la adolescencia y la treintena, estudiantes y profesionales de clase media― respondieron de manera tan rápida como casi unánime. “¡No, en absoluto!”, replicaron cinco de ellas. Dos se apresuraron a agregar que no deseaban niños. “Quiero independencia económica, mi carrera, mis viajes”, precisó una. Solo la más joven, de 16 años, reconoció que sí veía en su futuro casarse y formar una familia.

Son respuestas típicas, al menos en las ciudades, en China. La prosperidad económica de los últimos años y un aumento del nivel educativo, los altos costes de vida, junto a una evolución de la mentalidad en torno al amor, el matrimonio o la familia, se han sumado a los efectos dejados por décadas de política del hijo único. Como en otras sociedades desarrolladas, casarse y tener hijos ya no representa, para las generaciones chinas más jóvenes, la necesidad o la obligación que pudieron representar para sus padres o sus hermanos mayores. Cada año nacen menos niños: 17,86 millones en 2016, tras el fin de la política del hijo único; 14,65 millones en 2019.

La caída de la natalidad está entre los factores de un problema que dispara las alarmas entre las autoridades nacionales: el descenso de población, que se combinará con un drástico envejecimiento, el más rápido del mundo. Una auténtica bomba de relojería demográfica en el país más poblado del planeta, para el que serlo supone uno de los pilares de su influencia. Según el Ministerio de Asuntos Civiles, en 2019 la proporción de mayores de 65 años era del 12,57%; para 2025, esa cifra podría alcanzar el 25%, esto es, 300 millones de personas. En 2050, según las proyecciones de la Comisión Nacional sobre Envejecimiento, los mayores de 60 años superarán los 487 millones de personas, un 28% de su población y más que los habitantes de toda la Unión Europea. En cambio, la población en edad de trabajar, entre los 15 y los 59 años, representaba a finales de 2019 el 64% del total, mientras que entre 2000 y 2010 creció del 66% al 70%.

Políticamente delicado

Es un problema sobre el que los expertos vienen alertando cada vez con mayor insistencia, que se ha convertido en una cuestión políticamente muy sensible y que ha hecho de las cifras del último censo un secreto guardado bajo siete llaves: debían haberse hecho públicas a principios de abril y, un mes después, aún no hay fecha prevista para su divulgación. La portavoz de la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas, Liu Aihua, señalaba hace dos semanas que aún hacen falta “más preparativos” antes de presentarlas.

Esta semana, el Financial Times publicaba que el censo, compilado en 2020, revela la primera caída en el número de habitantes en China desde los tiempos del Gran Salto Adelante, entre 1959 y 1961, cuando una hambruna mató a decenas de miles de personas. La población se colocará por debajo de 1.400 millones de personas, un hito que había alcanzado en 2019. Casi de inmediato, Pekín lo negaba. En un seco comunicado de una sola línea, la Oficina Nacional de Estadística sostenía que “la población siguió creciendo en 2020”, aunque no precisa si con respecto al año anterior o frente a 2010, la fecha del censo anterior.

Pero el consenso entre los expertos chinos sigue siendo que la contracción llegará pronto, quizás en un año o dos. Un estudio del Instituto de Investigación Evergrande, de la prestigiosa Universidad de Tsinghua, calcula que el temido pico llegará durante los próximos cinco años; la oficial Academia de Ciencias Sociales de China lo prevé para 2027, la fecha con la que se mueven mercados y funcionarios.

Temores

La perspectiva es un drama para China: una población más envejecida y con una mayor esperanza de vida, sumado a un menor número de nacimientos y trabajadores jóvenes, implica que la fuerza laboral no vaya a ser suficiente para sustentar a las generaciones de más edad. Algo que tendrá impacto en las perspectivas económicas, desde el consumo a los cuidados para los ancianos, pasando por el gasto de la Seguridad Social. Un problema que ya afrontan otras sociedades ricas, pero que a la segunda economía del mundo se le plantea con un nivel menor de desarrollo. Y es algo que puede complicar las aspiraciones de su presidente, Xi Jinping, de convertir al país en una gran potencia en las próximas tres décadas.

“Nuestras proyecciones, con las cifras de antes del censo, ya sugerían que la fuerza laboral se contraería en un 0,5% anual para 2030, con un impacto similar en el PIB”, apuntaba la consultora Capital Economics este miércoles en una nota. “Un crecimiento más lento puede hacer más difícil alcanzar a Estados Unidos (la primera potencia) económicamente. Y también puede haber un impacto intangible en el prestigio global de China”.

Si se confirma la caída de población, y que llega antes de lo esperado, China tendrá que acelerar la toma de medidas hasta ahora pospuestas. “Posiblemente tendría que relajar completamente la política de control de natalidad” para permitir que quienes lo deseen tengan tres hijos o más, apunta en una nota Zhiwei Zhang, de la consultora Pinpoint Asset Management. Permitir que todas las parejas puedan tener dos niños desde 2016 no ha sido suficiente: aunque ese año hubo un leve repunte en los nacimientos, en los años posteriores las cifras no han dejado de caer.

Ya en marzo, el primer ministro, Li Keqiang, adelantaba en su discurso anual ante la Asamblea Nacional Popular (ANP, el parlamento chino) la puesta en marcha de una “estrategia nacional para afrontar el envejecimiento de la población”, en un indicio de la preocupación que desata el problema entre los líderes. Según el jefe de Gobierno, Pekín trabajará para que el índice de natalidad sea “apropiado”, en una posible referencia a la eliminación de los controles a los nacimientos.

Otra patata caliente será la subida de la edad de jubilación. Algo que, según mencionó Li en su discurso, también se pondrá en marcha “de manera gradual”. En la actualidad, el retiro está fijado en los 60 años para los varones y los 55 para las mujeres, aunque en el caso de ellas puede llegar a los 50 si ocupan puestos de trabajo que supongan un mayor desgaste físico. La esperanza de vida ronda los 76 años.

El propio banco central chino también ha lanzado un mensaje de alerta. En un informe publicado la semana pasada, instaba a “reconocer que la situación demográfica ha cambiado” y que la “educación y el progreso tecnológico no pueden compensar la caída de población”. Entre otras cosas, el documento recomienda “liberalizar por completo y alentar los nacimientos” y reducir la carga financiera que acompaña la crianza de un hijo ―incluida la educación― que disuade a muchas parejas de buscar más descendencia. También, de manera novedosa, apunta la posibilidad de permitir una mayor inmigración, una idea hasta ahora casi tabú en China.

Si este tipo de medidas persuadiría a las alumnas de la clase de idiomas en Pekín, está por ver. “No quiero bebés”, insistía una de ellas, profesional bancaria. “Viajar a otros sitios, moverme por ahí, recorrer paisajes, es lo que más me gusta en la vida. Para tener un hijo tendría que renunciar a eso”.

Fuente: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2021-05-01/la-bomba-de-relojeria-demografica-que-amenaza-a-china-menos-poblacion-y-mas-envejecida.html

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